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NewsRadio 1330 KNSS>Audio & Video on Demand>>Thurs 4/24/14 Hr 2 JBS Malcolm Hoenlein. Andrew Tabler. James Jeffrey. Ali Afoneh. Jonathan Schanzer.

Thurs 4/24/14 Hr 2 JBS Malcolm Hoenlein. Andrew Tabler. James Jeffrey. Ali Afoneh. Jonathan Schanzer.

Apr 24, 2014|

Malcolm Hoenlein. Andrew Tabler. James Jeffrey. Ali Afoneh. Jonathan Schanzer.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

I'm John back. Not much maligned conference president's major American Jewish organizations are -- to love him back we have it do you -- news coverage tonight. Ranging from. -- Syrian civil war to the ongoing Iran in negotiations over the suspect nuclear weapons program the stability of Turkey breakdown in the peaceful the breakdown in the peace talks is -- high point of our evening's discussion because it is so surprising. And because it is so profound also we will mention the Egyptian elections under way though general. CC's not much in public because of threats to mr. CC and we will mention Ukraine crisis. I also flag immediately because it is part of a global mix right now of chaos that the south China morning post. Is reporting. That there are preparations. Extent extant right now for a fourth nuclear test in North Korea big one. Coach -- is with the arrival of the president of the United States is embassy the national security advisors with him -- senior councils of the presidency. In Seoul within these next days and and what we're looking at here is a provocation that you'd have to say on a scale of one to ten this is a 7000 so. We will begin with Syria because all of these. Failed states are linked we welcome. Andrew table Andrew most recently has published a piece of commenting upon the work of David Miliband. Of Great Britain ambassador Robert S Ford it was this ambassador to Syria before the failure of the Syrian state into a failed state. And Andrew I beg pardon for the the summary. Very grim news tonight and yet when I come to Syria it looks like a mini me of all the grief on the planet. The president and the east national security apparatus of the United States have not been clear about the United States policy towards Syria these last months. Since the surrender we -- told of the chemical weapons the Syrian civil war. Would you characterize it as a low burning sensation or is this building to be out of control for the whole region good evening to. Good evening. Actually the Syrian towards accelerating. President Obama. -- -- -- -- -- That nearly. Over 80% of the chemical weapons are so packed in the agent had left Syria and that was due to. Two American leadership. I don't know anyone else in the region new group who thinks that. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- These are actually outright refusing until now to destroy all chemical weapons site. And he's been accused of using chlorine gas it -- country there recently. But. That's fifty of course you look at this hearing competent I think it's just chemical weapon when it's not. Actually a 160000. People at least have been a bit. In in the conflict about half the Syrian population what do. In the conference getting worse in becoming increasingly sectarian between. The either of Charlotte but backed by Iran and -- republic. And and the rebels backed by the from the country's -- look really bad news for are all afraid and and and extremely bad news out for the period. But you have written about the steps that could be taken. Do you -- -- an ability to unite the opposition when we see that they're killing more for each other than they are of Hezbollah Syrian forces. Right it's a huge. Problem on the opposition. That there are many sponsors throughout the world. Have exacerbated -- existing divisions. Within their community. And what it led Q is that you know I'm very well in -- treated everyone in the shall understand that. There are many current strength in the Middle East they are against. Western interest. And that they have fuel extremism. Among the period and opposition now. The reason though that these groups are sponsored it and because it into western activities. It is to fight the regime of the Charlotte and into raw end of the safety demands sworn enemy. But. That the problem we have at the moment is that this war between the regime and the opposition. It's really more sectarian it's becoming more out of control and -- are US policy objective is simply are not being met. We're not having a negotiated solution to this problem is that not -- it's trying to support solution. On to a very very -- unstable situation. But could there be anything more than as some sort of a temporary cease fire. That doesn't really -- because they in -- and interest of these different groups even amongst the different rebels -- Sunni Shiite all the divisions. It can't really hold is there anything is the unifying force that can be imposed on them. That's right -- did did until now. -- -- deep divisions on the opposition to work for it because. It's essentially gave a whack a -- they see they see essentially played against the regime thirteen -- -- did not amount if they pop up somewhere else that. Gruden did that regime crazy. It wasn't really until the prevention of Hezbollah. Iraqi Shia forces them to quit or been. Syria that they were able to Kabul to get her -- impact force. To put down the rebels to be. That the problem is the what we need for the rebels now with the street people for example is. Coherent dual -- structure. And order together international support and push product in. There are actions that are trying to do that now they're they're not all strained and but that that we you have a problem between extremists and moderates and that's gonna that's gonna go on what some common -- Andrew profound change these last months is the breakdown in relationship between Washington and Moscow. It's chiefly about the Black Sea bass and however we know that the intricacies of the Syrian policy in the United States are wrapped inside the Russian policy in Syria. Do you believe that what. An article in the New York Times by Peter Baker really recently. Published the opinion of the White House and no one pushed back. That treating our Russia as a pariah state that's the opinion of the Obama administration. Means that the Syrian civil war cannot be solved added it is completely removed from. The imagination that the United States can. Find a way to solve Syria while Russia is an enemy. Yeah I think it's very difficult. To. Have a eighty policy. In Syria -- is designed. Two is supposedly used to poverty put into the country back together again and that you rely on Russia to do that. When -- at the same time Russia is completely. -- that role. An adversary in Europe and beyond. So I think to chemical weapons the court it's going to be the last hurrah. For that. That kind of diplomatic effort and now we're gonna go on to a real confrontation. And down and so I think you know looking into the future. It's got a lot more. Everybody has stated it would be part of the solution to your work and it's not just going to be due to policy that's gonna let President Obama. In a tight spot is as simple. -- look into the future and issued John and I have discussed for a long time. We -- now that the number of foreign fighters seems to be increasing. Exponentially in fact from where it started and where was even a few months ago. What happens to these guys is anybody claiming about their return to the United States to Europe all over the world these trained job this. Yet there European. Intelligence searches in American intelligence services very worried about those. They are thinking that a lot of will lose their lives in western copper put all the -- that they'll come back end and I think there's. There's certain part of that is training of these individuals give a partisan question they're going to be hopping mad. And it's what it's a situation where. They're of their anger is not necessarily because. Of anything that happened in Syria -- about their their anger is. Directed against United States in the US government because of standing by doing what they believe -- Far far left and could. Could you make a quick -- a comment about the Lebanese election and we're running out of time. -- we haven't had anybody discuss what the implications are. Sure that the let me elections are about. You know the ability president and controls part of the government but he controlled the head of the army and the army right now is working with Hezbollah try and -- in this bill ever coming from Syria. And the be different factions inside the country now -- jousting between each other could have that position. And so I don't think it's going to be easy inside initial -- rather look at that actually. I think I thought for awhile and I'm this'll probably the last time you're talking about the show what I need to predict. -- aware that Andrew Taylor. Reporting on Syria very carefully now again. We did not connect this to the reportedly North Korean nuclear test but the president is due in -- within hours. And the tests according to the south China morning post may be time to the arrival of president. I mention that because this is not a small policy problem. Andrew -- senior -- the program and Arab politics of Washington institute on John bachelor with Malcolm online. I'm just not enough from the phone line is here again. These south China morning post is it. Is reporting the potential of an imminent nuclear test before for North Korea the tunnels been shot. The president is on the ground in Seoul momentarily we're watching this it is not the first shot at first chapter of a thriller by mr. Clancy the late mr. Clancy just fact we go to. Ambassador James F Jeffrey. At the Washington institute he's the -- salons distinguished visiting fellow at the institute. Pumped up publishing a -- most recently about Ukraine crisis and the Iran file I understand there are a lot of moving points here but the ambassador will help. As mr. ambassador. With the the threatening news in North Korea I go to Ukraine crisis where within these flowers hours we're told that the Russian troops are moving very close along the border. Of eastern Ukraine after the reporting of deaths in eastern Ukraine near selling guns that's done that's a blast. At the same time in these last 24 hours to report that the United States is dispatched. A 173 airborne brigade troops to Estonia Latvia Lithuania and Poland 150 each I believe those are companies of airborne brigade. As a demonstration. Of support for our NATO allies. All of that is on the board. So mr. ambassador I turn the screw are we watching a deterioration. Of the a rainy in new negotiations. In Eastern Europe right now can. The CFP five plus one maintain their rigid schedule for the negotiations on the suspect nuclear weapons program in Iran. With the nuclear test potential North Korea. With the confrontation. In Ukraine. With what the Washington. The White House now declares is a pariah state in Moscow. Or has this collapsed into a Stew of a threat and toxicity good evening to you mr. ambassador. Good evening back do you -- and Malcolm it is just do -- toxicity as you put it but the one. Brightpoint perhaps will be Iranian negotiations because I do not think. That -- -- the Obama administration will pull back from trying to get an agreement Iranians desperately need. -- agreement because otherwise they're going to be crushed under even further oil sanctions. And the Russians have no particular reason not to continue cooperating on maps of their own. Real politic recently don't want -- in nuclear -- and they know that if the Russians a lot of this thing the United States has the oil -- And capability we have the military capability we have other tools to continue to pressure on Iran with -- without Russia. The deal has always been between United States and Iran and -- rest of the are basically along for the ride. So you don't see him. Going along with some interim agreement and then doing his own bilateral nuclear arrangement with the ground. That is possible. If things get if you want to escalated. -- couldn't try to -- -- deal with the Iranians in which. They would make concessions but not as many as we would want and -- couldn't announce this as acceptable that would be a very dramatic step -- one that we have to watch. But even in those circumstances and it's it has as -- as. The same kind of military political diplomatic and economic dominance that region that Russia has companies to Ukraine. In the end we can not achieve what we need to do. But could he really could be were Russia today sustained additional sanctions given that their GDP is tickled to Italy into that they gonna go down to Holland there. I don't see how he has the cards if we were to play it right if the west was to really put the screws on. Well. Rusher is not a region. That is it's primary sales well. Oil and gas that's -- hot it is up. Budget and it's the big -- of the Russian GDP. The gas of course there is no I'll shot term alternatives to the Western Europe so therefore it's -- -- go away. Even the oil we're talking about amounts of 678 million barrels a day. That's a far greater than what Iran was popping -- there is no way to substitute for that so there's really no way to stick it out of pocket. Now while he's so different shot terms topped. Our currency and stock market turbulence because of these sanctions and you know like that investment to -- out money and pulled out. Those are -- term my development in the end is -- -- the acting continued its oil and gas trade. And maintain their nationalistic dictatorial approach to resolve -- Republicans it's quite popular. He can ride out the sanctions. The puzzle about. Russia is that it is intimately involved in the as well as what passes for negotiations and diplomacy in Syria. The breakdown in conversation between Moscow and Washington looks profound mr. ambassador. This is not the dark days of the Cold War there's not a hot phone hotline to my knowledge now being maintained than in any event it looks like hope for. -- hope for success in Iran and hope for success in Syria. Turns on a conversation. In which neither side trusts the other side they're making accusations all the time to their own people. Tom in general I agree with you but I would I would make several. Comments first about as sacred. Both sides there all three sides for their own reasons probably gonna continue along. -- -- That we see with the ramp with the possibility of a wild kind by potent trying to cut interpret deal but I consider that a possibility that congress -- In terms of -- there's never been any negotiation compromise everything out for the Russians they're waging a war along with the Iranians -- our government and Hezbollah. To destroy the bulk of the population of serious that's what it takes to maintain their dominance and the negotiations in Geneva have been to raid. Chemical weapons deal that we -- we're so proud of was done solely to stop us from using military force would -- about -- a lot more effective and so what we're dealing with is -- Russia. That is not as powerful as it was. Under the guise of the Soviet Union during the Cold War but the difference on is that. Broke the longest time since basically 1991. To -- -- talker. We thought that we were dealing with Russia that was trying to hide albeit not very successfully. Integrate itself into western institutions and had turned beliefs. Just like Germany and Japan had turned at least in their history what was I think it's absolutely not not with -- not with the support of the population behind. If we're talking about turning leaves could you give us that your assessment of the Turkey elections -- -- look -- that we have left to -- It's very important and does does potent emerge as all powerful president that of this. -- One may he's not the president yet Turkey for the first time and it is true hold presidential elections in August I believe. We're the -- will try. Two one they'll need 50% of the vote news first or runoff election. Probably can get that based upon the municipal vote occurred -- that BDP supports him and that they're good reasons to because he's. Carried out. They accommodation policy that's been very successful with my -- so there's a real chance he can get that but to really rule as a one man. Almost dictatorial leader he would need to change the constitution because the Turkish president is not very spot. I'm not sure sure he's got the ability to do that and I'm not sure he knows that either so this rose and dissect them as well. But he is by Bob distraught mr. leaders and most of them come out how to direct. And -- hours of forward -- country. Ambassador James F Jeffrey at the Washington institute served most recently in the Bush Administration. As the deputy assistant secretary of for the bureau of near eastern affairs Department of State Malcolm home -- conference of presidents. Major American Jewish organizations I'm John -- Video and audio highlights of the week in review and sign up for our newsletter act. John bachelor show dot com. I'm John that's remarkable phone line my colleague. Co host a Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. We're very pleased to welcome -- off and a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. I announce that the news we have from Asia right now from the south China morning post from the reporter on the Korean Peninsula. Is that preparations are in place for the fourth nuclear test a nuclear weapons test in North Korea. -- coach Sherman Lewis or coincidental with the arrival of the president of the United States and sell. In his -- day embassy Malcolm. Well what is -- your sense of the presence of Iranian. People scientists at the test if if in fact it goes ahead tomorrow. As the model the past where there's the synergy between the two tests on the ballistic level missile level as well as on the nuclear. Weapons -- One -- you know I am not in doubt that there are any Iranian nuclear scientists. And also military observers at this. -- in North Korea. All that has seen a period not to step up cooperation between two countries North Korea war first that a country so. Ballistic missiles to Iran and meaning appealing -- our pipes. Our reverse engineer it model over courier and are so -- and -- you absolutely important. Who wore it to watch in the nuclear power plant. Part of this some think that Iranian diplomats and -- Are actually want change we're anxious. True North Korea's nuclear past -- what it once you know these. USB -- he. Ask our alleged act which is wise. It ought to let you. Our. Let's read minds. Becoming in mine started that -- lot to -- at. Iranian diplomats -- Bernard. And what about the the discussions now that have been going on for more than six months is it do you see any. Breakthroughs do you see that the talks get extended. Was the Iraq deal that that the Iranians -- really a deal or just another balloon. You know I can -- you know -- -- happy with what I ordered their export our our. -- because of the negotiations. Eight more this half Jewish group and are you -- screen. At the nuclear site from which are part of our enriched uranium. And sort of the rewards. Aaron yes. It's something to song. Inspections regime. -- -- -- -- Aggressive but are we -- -- that the US government. More -- -- recognizes you want lark or domestic enrichment all are -- -- there -- quote something you can't believe. Actually warned that -- -- -- Cochran was at the US. We're actually charity EUS and even sanctions urging certain movies or I'm not what he doesn't school Ers are my. You write for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. That VI RG seized Iranian Revolutionary Guards corps the military. A lead to the country are a threat to -- harming the elected president the chosen president of the country. The puzzle here is. Whether Iran is a military dictatorship now whether there's been a military coup or whether there's a governance here that is a mystery to me. There's there's there's a state within the state VI RGC. That does not express its authority to raw -- it doesn't talk to a honey how does that actually work on a day to day basis who's in -- Right. I understand that partly or -- US audience. For -- -- Shooting. It clearly states may lie and it would like to eat in very slight -- on. Talks we heard the Americans are are -- it Gary -- -- -- but at the -- iron eight or secede it sort of looks to god he commander upbeat psychological. Preparation. -- -- -- watching at light -- H actually -- in which secret site. -- course on nuclear negotiations. Conducted by principle. And -- fuel source is that's because our caller of the arts. England agreements. That the US government. Reach we are practical on. -- -- -- Can be retract it and concessions made quite -- -- Actually you extracted by like record of our act Eric. -- now the other teams to -- More risk tolerate and are you on you -- sessions in transport sanctions released. But the moment that you -- economy -- -- Mubarak. Those concessions. Eric may be taken back. And DC did a back to a door talks that we're told about the third channels sports channel talks. Yielding and that any kind of result in supposedly in the latest reports that that even Hezbollah has participating in some of these backdoor channels. What are -- an interest in developments. He can chew. That the US government want to reach out elements which quote an interest tablets arching. -- and any kind of New York bird he needs to the -- -- -- it's not an accurate. Or not. -- -- Robert he's. Not in the interest -- -- -- got to -- serious two sections are not. Ready constitute. In their calculation. They -- in much at all. Having Bob and engaging in strategic talks we US they want to be between patients. -- pop star record that he scooped up the -- And it's well he's source all. Kristi and -- -- -- under. -- she's got the corporation that you are certain parts wants to be. And basically do not want to see if you're brilliant politician much restore or money. -- controlling our ports and are more lists. -- good. And you want she knew it would be off certificate or. Could it could be front and back off of this nomination of the UN ambassador would. Raw honey be embarrassed in front of the RGC in those circumstances. That -- report immediately impressed and you are several. -- talks. There are worse there. We're actually. Regards which you wore or eat to this government at this -- he. -- Hot. Just in order to apartment on east. Can act on its own. Error at -- -- you're on vacation he did not mention in New York. And -- an attempt two. To argue -- parents. Or eight. According to support agreements or serious that the -- ball in there that is not what you are. Here. And -- -- the actual -- that you -- it before. Which -- not. -- result in the Eric -- east in. And now there. Are at our. To be in mr. -- So -- an interest in kind. -- cool off what you RTC could you. In very patient Kuwait. True. Constant talks between line you're. Ali the test that is threatened in North Korea. Is that an Iranian test and does Iran want to provoke the president with that test. Notebook -- period -- question I think -- North Korea has the end up smaller but I am. Being there on he's watching the East Asia are very very well. And -- it would be very very much like to be the same position. Countries like. What we belief that Iran and North Korea -- trio of states but seen from our. Seen by their commanders are that are at art. These two countries are tremendous success are countries which managed to like you know what area. He's -- for -- North Korea are our state do not think the current. So therefore if this test goes forward or even a threat of the test we don't need a bang the threat is alarming enough given that the president is in the region. This is a success for these states from Iran's point of view. And it's because these are not there are actual X are you are. Watching. Developments on four and not huge in -- are all -- situation. Each will be another sign that United States trying. To. Won't be -- are essentially what -- Is something that is quite an article. -- afsane is that the -- is right is writing very carefully about the -- GC for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. This is as he has presented a very difficult to understand governance in Iran. -- Hani is civilian and more listens very closely at the hand of the supreme leader. The IR GC is military elite is also at the hands of the supreme leader. There balance or there imbalance. Is the leadership of Iran right now. The suspect nuclear weapons program is entirely in the hands of the supreme leader as I understand. Knock them online conference president Ali -- finance the foundation for the defense of democracy I'm on I'm John bachelor. Oh. I'm John that's -- Malcolm online conference presidents. Major American Jewish organizations. Continues with me. Secretary of state speaking within these last hours. Following the news that Israel has pulled back from negotiations with the Palestinian Authority after the provocative. Statements by the PA by Mahmoud Abbas and others. That the PA was merging uniting. Ganging up with Hamas a terrorist organization in Gaza the secretary of State's remarks. Acknowledges this quote a difficult point and quote and then he goes on to say there's always a way forward but the leaders have to make the compromises to do that. We may see a way forward but if they're not willing to make the compromises necessary. It becomes very elusive mr. -- went on to say. We will never give up our hope. Or our commitment for the possibilities of peace we believe it is the only way to go but right now obviously. Is it very difficult point in the leaders themselves have to make decisions. Welcome Jonathan chancellor of the foundation for the defense of democracy. Who's pressing and books Yasser Arafat -- -- Abbas in the on making of the Palestinian state. Is headlines state a failure. Jonathan a very good evening -- -- the merger of the PA what's left of it after these many years of non election -- non performance with -- and Abbas. And the Hamas. These looks. To be surprising this looks to catch the secretary of state without a sharp response. Is it a surprise to the region is -- a surprise to the US State Department good evening to you. Good evening well done I mean I would have to say -- that it did the announcement itself with something of this surprise. However. We need to put this in the context that Hamas and Fatah factions have -- such proclamations before they have. They have gone to the altar they have vowed to get married and they've they've they've gone running in this this happened several times in the past. So this could be yet another idle threat on the part of Mahmoud -- trying to extract concessions. From the Israelis or from the United States. However the context of this is what is now very troubling. This of course is happening right as the peace talks appealed to run out of -- to run out of gas. And -- has now issued several threats he has threatened to. Disband the palace that. Authorities he has threatened to go to the United Nations and to press for the Palestinian case there. And now he's of course also threatening. To join forces with Hamas which is a terrorist organization. The ramifications of that are are probably the most surprising. And here you have a guy who has been trying to build up or at least allegedly has been trying to build up Palestinian. State over these last nine years since he's been in power. And by joining handle Hamas he would effectively cut off all assistance from the United States because Hamas as a terrorist organization. And he might even. Prompt a listing of the PLO as a terrorist organization if he allows Hamas to join so these are some of the surprises. But we're trying to understand right now but certainly this is a man who does not appear to be terribly deterred by the United States. Or any of the initiatives that we launched. I don't know if you heard Erica tonight's that this Hamas is not a terrorist organization and never was. And I guess never will be. But legacies that you can't recognize that when you are one. So the -- -- my question choose one what odds would you give that they would actually consummate this deal. In two. How this fits in you mentioned the United Nations approaches is not a hypothetical. In his few weeks and I think two weeks that thirty days or -- even next week. And fifteen conventions will be affected by a by the letters that was sent by the Palestinian Authority. And this will be so disruptive in the negative way disruptive is used. To any chance of the United States coming around with the. Well you know look at -- that it didn't answer your first question we really have no idea. About right now with all these -- looks very much like a loose -- You. You get a sense that he's sort of grasping at straws. But the -- take away from all of this is that he's no longer bound to the United States doesn't seem to care. While he has started to pursues some of these tactics he's also I've gone to the Arab League in his -- work. Them to its weekly cover the losses that might result is applying to the UN or is just and Hamas. It you know as far as the the campaign goes I mean look it's in the the application to UN yet we're talking about fifteen convention now. You probably looking at another 48. Agencies and tensions that the Palestinians will likely soon after that. Each one of those promptly cut off. In US assistance every one of these conventions -- agencies that is US law and congress is not willing to budge on this. But the bottom line is that the more about to make these moves reaching out to Hamas going to be UN. He is angering congress which has been chomping at the debt over these last. Eight or nine months just waiting for the peace process to expire so that they can get their pound of flesh they've been waiting patiently the administration has an. Asked congress to hold back. Now you're hearing that Ileana Ross Lehman. Ted Deutch and other members of congress are eager to hold hearings and to bring into question. Whether we should be funding the Palestinian Authority at all. Congresswoman. -- lost threat the luncheon and -- Clinton and congressman joy which our colleagues. We speak to them regularly and I emphasize to America has become accustomed to think that the two parties don't work together. These are. These represent very good Democrats and very good Republicans and there of one harsh on this story of the threat to Israel. Jonathan I would go to page 179 of your excellent book. This refers to a past past event but it was a potential at the time. -- cut off by congress. Threatening the Palestinians with behavior of this is several years past. But the Israelis collect 100 million dollars in value added taxes on top and about half of the Palestinians each month. I imagine that's more now because this is several years later he's that it risk here is is Mahmoud Abbas daring the Israelis to cut him off from them. Absolutely and I think that that's one of the other things that Abbas has not really thought through. Just to put into context the US assistance to the Palestinians is roughly 600 million dollars and let's just stayed at that amounts to about 20%. Of the Palestinian but it cannot help but that you've got Israelis were collecting the taxes and dispersing them back to the Palestinians. If they would hope that that's another 40%. Their annual budget that's a hundred million dollars a month a one point two billion dollars per year you're talking about a lot of money and that start at. Well -- -- the one thing that about maybe banking on and get it very hard to tell what he's doing your pretty baby thinking maybe he joined hands. With Hamas and perhaps some of hamas' patrons. Like the countries like the Turks perhaps even the Iranians. May feel the need. Two to bridge that gap and about maybe thinking that this is the way. Where he could attract new patrons patrons that may not be. And demanding at the United States may not be asking for that transparency for the building of institutions for a single treasury. And so about me just finally thrown his hands up in the air and you know what enough of its -- with a legitimate patient process. You know let's just go back to the old you know Arab autocracy model. And it really doesn't matter we partnered with medical Tomas. But can he really afford to allow Hamas to participate freely. In the parliamentary elections that are proposed. As part of this do you suppose that part of the deal which I share your skepticism about but. He beat Kenny in reality allow it they they have a significant following -- could find himself with a big surprises afterwards. Look I mean not that I you know the skepticism. But I mean it for anyone who's been watching the Palestinians over the years. You know well we're all in the same thing that you know these two these two factions can't agree on anything. They are at war with each other in the west bank and the Gaza Strip you really have to separate states. They have been at odds with each other since that civil war back in 2007. And the idea that about would be. Potentially even willing to allow that to plant and is you know is unthinkable. That dead I think you're also looking at a man who is eighty years old. He is in ill health he knows it is time left as a leader is probably dwindling. And he is likely wondering what is like people will look like. And I think that his death on the peace process or diplomacy with the Israelis have absolutely failed I think in large part to his state. Jonathan Jonathan chance there were his book is state of failure about Hamas Malcolm -- and I'm John bachelor.

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