Yeah. And John that is this is the John that's -- show. Ukraine crisis. Now we move to -- me Russia. Because in the Black Sea basin. He thought the -- descended on the fighting in the Don Basque region east of Ukraine. These many weeks something dramatic has happened in the last seven days however and as he made no. Leaders gather in Cardiff Wales 28 members of NATO surrounded by. What is called a steel wall twelve miles of steel reinforcement with 9500. Police with six major warships in Cardiff -- with. V 22 ospreys and helicopters landing routinely in fact a war camp in Cardiff Wales. As that gathers we turn to the question of what is to be done about Ukraine and what brings us to this crisis it has specifics in Ukraine. And I very much welcome professor Stephen F -- new York university and -- and Princeton University. Russian history Americans because his article the new cold war on the necessity of patriotic heresy. Is up with the nation dot commons in the magazine. And it is the larger story we're watching this is no longer just about Kiev but will begin with Kiev will begin with the fighting of this last week we'll begin with the claims. By the Kiev government. That Russia has invaded and then we'll look to the threat to all of world peace including the economies of Europe in the United States and Russia. If this drama continues to spiral and if it approaches what has been mentioned in these last days. Run a Saber rattling not unlike the original Cold War. Steve a very good evening -- you I want to begin with what we know about what's happened in Ukraine this last week that's changed the drama in some fashion. So that it is now in Putin's favor. To resolve this accordingly. And no longer in power Shiancoe is favored. To resolve -- militarily. You mentioned last week reporting from Moscow while we were on air. Of and offensive launched by. The separatists. Offensive against the Ukraine -- Kiev forces gather around their nets can -- ponds the two major cities of the Don -- What can you tell us about that offensive how they did it and where they are right now good evening to you. On it's absolutely. Remarkable story. Remarkable turn victory fortune. That's not been reported in American little glimpses of -- sometime. Here in -- For several weeks. The army of Kia. And it's nationalist militia. Launched against each took part -- should actually. The two main cities of the option. Arms and yet. The army Ukrainian army sent out the outside. With a heavier and also -- and basically bombarded these. According to the result according to the United Nations is nearly 3000. You would get a lot of older people women and children. And -- -- a million refuge. Am the it's not near destruction. Sort of -- -- the structure. Or is essentially. Greens. And it appeared to the media question if there was an inevitability about -- he shouldn't would fall. That the rebels of urgency -- -- the court would flee. That problem would suffer terrible political necessity because he had supported these people. You defeat it even in Russia as political positions. Might be under. Article appeared in American newspapers and magazines with -- people be flown what happened to halt. Lot of that tour. And on the ground. In the -- The rebels in church. We're transforming themselves from essentially a guerrilla army into a regular army fighting. Suddenly they absorption. Which they had. They're a couple. They had platoon -- they had some -- in other words they established a command. And communication each. And they were preparing for what they call counteroffensive. Now -- numbers overwhelmingly favor Kia they have about 50000. Under on the edge. And the rebels in about 151000 -- deploy at various points. Through last week Kabul that counteroffensive. Launched launched by the rebels -- out. On the Ukrainian. There are reports that they began to flee leaving their equipment on truth really retreated from their positions -- they used to bombard. The two cities and they headed toward America poll. City somewhat shell on the city and importance -- should he symbolically. It. They still hold that city but he has been if not a well a major defeat. And production -- the president of -- which directly when he shared yesterday. There has been an annual radical change in our military she actually this is present. In other words we all of what we thought was -- victory. If you had promised liberated. These areas by the end of August. Through what looked known to be right now he's an actual defeat. All the explanation. In the where. Is that Russia has invaded. That Russian fighters. Heavy equipment. All manner of the military warfare. Have been crossing the border between Russia and and it's this Russian quote in Asia which turns in the talk. About I would say to. -- -- not that the -- but when I mentioned or rebels proper tactic. Sure but undoubtedly they had Russian. They might have gotten more sophisticated Russian equipment it's possible and certainly they have Russian military. To help them more. But if there had been a Russian invasion when you're and I would recognize. We remember from the Russian invasion so called Georgian 2008. Hundreds of paratroopers. -- proper points behind him. Hundreds of columns of armored personnel -- tanks rolled across the border airplanes are in the air protecting cock. And the communications system of the country being invaded. Is utterly disable third -- of the Russians are doing that is invaded. And it fit in this mystery or at least intensive. Today the spokeswoman. Of the State Department when asked if the United States government. Could could. -- claims. That Ukraine has been great -- Repeated by the war between NATO and NATO ally Japanese retribution it's political there. She said bill. We do not have any of independent information -- -- -- actually staunch. No one understands it would be very and to be -- I was old government. Say that Russia has invaded. Crying he would be required to -- something good -- do. But the fact federal government will cannot confirm reports. Makeshift at the moment only national. Not now but they're no doubt that Russia. That's where we stand as you grow. -- like the NATO leaders the -- I think this well this this military and political change. Because. -- -- the the president of Ukraine was refusing. To declare ceasefire on the grounds that the rebels. Would use cease fire to save their situation. They have -- saved their situation. With a -- And it might be partly Shiancoe. Crane. At the cease fire to -- essentially. Because it seems to be very dark and whether. Whether the insurgent rebels will crush their new military advantage I don't know. Your position -- should keep an ally on the porch from the city -- Paul. Because that's the major market it's not clear -- future. Try to take it they don't. I'm speaking with professor Stephen F Cohen. A new York university and Princeton University his article that the nation a new cold war on the necessity of patriotic -- he's been updated. The NATO meeting in Cardiff is only part of the story of the confrontation. Is going on there's also discussion of sanctions that the EU. Led by the European Commission. There's also a NATO exercise scheduled for the middle of the month that will include. Sell -- us military personnel from all of the NATO nations including we're told according to Reuters up to a thousand. US personnel so NATO is now not going to just let. Ukraine's fault quietly into non reporting of what's going on the Don bass. The larger story unfolds when we come back I'm John bachelor this is the John that's Sasha. And. I'm John bounces and John. Stephen F Cohen. New York University Princeton University is here with me and we're discussing Ukraine crisis and we've been talking about the war fighting in the -- bass and the fog of war. And the surprising fact that the US State Department is not ready to confirm that Russia has invaded despite the outlandish. Remarks by Kiev speak as speakers these last days about Russian invasion. Virtually a reproduction of the Prague invasion in 1968 it's almost just as. And the death they were talking about the sentimental Soviets and not the Russian Federation. But right now we have NATO preparing for its meeting in Cardiff. We also have NATO announcing that -- operation rapid tried and we'll go forward in the middle of this month. As a sign of NATO's commitment. Two non NATO whom -- membership this operation this exercise will take place. And what is known as the yacht or a yacht -- -- training center which is near Ukraine's border in Poland. And that's why I wanna start Steve this is about diplomacy now the fog of diplomacy. The president of Poland was recently elevated to be the president of the European Commission. Poland has often been seen as a strong voice against Russia in this contest. Is Poland now leading NATO is Poland now leading the EU is it -- in this beating the war -- here and Washington has fallen quiet. Think there are just that there are in Washington. There are two fractions in NATO and oh Warren that wishes to accommodate Russia on the ground -- Russia. Has legitimate interest and is significantly. European countries and that Russia has the energy and the markets. Europe which is in trouble. The other faction has been a primary role model. If you know where. All. Our proposal in Wales. To put this new NATO military infrastructure. On Russia's war. It's in Poland. -- small Baltic. Republics and -- And go to the -- country along certain extent which we. That have pushed for this very aggressive military policy. These moderate if you wanna call. Warning of NATO has of course -- -- Remember what Merkel saga should shut up for many Russians which when you left shattered remember. -- -- She said -- their cannot be a military solution. To these fault. And she was speaking to pershing go in Korea but also people all in NATO. It's taking this will try -- -- -- slow crawl. I was very important. And it meant that there had to be ceasefire and negotiations. Which pushed. They -- -- on which if any -- this is currently. There any common in Asia have to take into Russia's legitimate interest. So she is an advocate of the moderate position that Russia has legitimate interest and that they were saying that -- some. Which led of course. The problem is is that Merkel publicly seems to be virtually alone. Northern leader in NATO spoke. French president spoke. For a week or two like this couple months ago he's -- And Obama over. Issued conflicting things or nothing at all but the fact that he's going to Estonia. One of the small countries that receive this new military -- suggest that Obama is on board. With the contraction. In in NATO now they're big -- of partial -- prices. Because there's a lot of things being at. But I think probably this leave the military structure Russian war which has never happened before despite twenty years of NATO expansion. It was basically political and military. That fish train probably has left the station because that dramas and banged. And -- for almost two or three weeks I -- -- which advocates. Shall expose themselves. If they didn't have. Sufficient quality. Let -- a momentous decision. It creates situation. Where the expansion of NATO a total primary political military. And unlike during the previous school. Where the line between the military forces in the east and west -- always. You know there are literally orbiter. Russia just of course war. A lot of press on par Shiancoe here because he's headed to Cardiff as -- to leave Ukraine. Ukraine's. Delegation. -- Shiancoe was the story for these last months. But he's no longer the story's not driving this he's lost in so in fact in some fashion it appears that he's lost the attention of NATO. So the we have men such as the president of Poland Donald Tusk. -- the European council has been elected to and be very popular and outspoken. Foreign minister of Poland speaking out. Not par Shiancoe anymore is is if he's being used doppler is no longer effective he's cried wolf wolf so many times. They're no longer using them against European a European audience. Do you believe that -- Shiancoe has disappointed. Washington has disappointed Brussels. I think he has the support. They understand that his conduct of the war. Failed. They understand that his political base in Kia is shrinking. They understand that these protests are not large but they're forming in the streets of Kia. Could -- to another -- on which overthrew the previous president. Ukraine but they chose this course. And they not only chose this course they decided to write this. As the great legitimate democratic leader of Ukraine even though about 40% of the country didn't vote in -- presidential election. And symbolically he now becomes. Social program hints. Why else would they invited him to -- the -- Ukraine is not a member of -- wide receiver I don't know and why has Obama decided for the second time. To invite him or. What's the purpose of -- Biden talks to production or older every day. Why not what's the symbolism what's the message being sent. And they're doubling down on pollution. And one understand war I mean he's the only would be national leader. Crane. But I wonder what NATO and Washington thing. NATO's not doubling down on -- -- Washington in his. Well so why would NATO having come to Wales. I might -- because they're not members I have no good explanation it might have been from a script it's no longer useful and they're just following through another words. Then the free marry a poll offensive script might have been for Porsche and go to come there and be the Victor of little ponds but that's no longer useful. Well I think -- looked -- but now now you're getting -- clamor. In NATO but the call for action and in Washington but all action to summon help bring you. In didn't -- right what would some status. Right actually do. -- and that's what we're gonna talk about next Steve because this is about the new Cold War what this -- know why you'd heard of his. This is no longer about Ukraine crisis this is about the conflict between. Armed forces symmetrical warfare units with nukes on John that's separate. Professor Stephen F Cohen of New York University. Russian history in Princeton as well emeritus on this is the John about -- I'm John -- Not to loosen -- the very highest clouds created from meteor smoke in the upper atmosphere. This is the end of the -- to loosen cloud season over Europe and over North America. To learn more podcast always ready John bachelor show dot com. It's. Okay we'll. And yeah. I'm John -- John best -- show. Professor Stephen F Cohen is here and -- four months have carried on a conversation watching very carefully about the contest between Moscow. And Kiev. -- Kiev as an act or in. It with its sympathies in Washington but now NATO. Which has been in the background with a Secretary General Rasmussen making noise about he wants more money once more action Poland asking for NATO to stage. An air of a high performance aircraft or. Military personnel on the ground close to the Ukraine border but now NATO -- meeting. And they are making announcements prior to their meeting one of them is important because this is about the future. NATO's general secretary Rasmussen announced within these last days that NATO is gonna create a spearhead force. That's described as something that will travel light but strike hard if needed. Strike why it's called the readiness action plan. And it said according to mr. Rasmussen to be a response to Russia's aggressive behavior not about Ukraine Russia's aggressive behavior. -- this looks to be. That's the story that turns into a 21 century contest here. -- Shiancoe is an actor who has to deal with the vagaries of the politics and Kiev and the people of the Don Basque region right now look to be taking care of themselves on the establishing facts on the ground. For their independence -- federalization. A week federalization. From Kiev from the central government but. Andy readiness. Action plan points that -- hand at Moscow and Moscow will respond you've talked about us being closer to war. That and -- times since. The end of the Cold War does -- mean to take costs to this less attentive to the limit to put spears at the Russian border. And dare dare potent -- counter. I don't know what NATO in tends to -- -- all of the Russian. But that will be -- When we first start talking hawkish about current or suspected that. I should I thought we -- reach step. The first step would be ukrainians soul. That's unfolded since it. Second step would be that the ukrainians civil war became a proxy. Between the large states that has an -- Russia is helping fighters in the and we use our states are helping you. We're -- -- with weapon but what money because you had no money to its shoulders raised tensions. Fuel. So we're both aiding our proxy. I said that if that happened. And it escalated we NB -- -- -- position. Our board art. And I think the lock step in achieving -- kind of modern day Cuban -- On Russian workers would be if they don't lose it's been pushed to Russia's borders now why that happened. Needs to be figured out there are two possible. The formal. Which NATO and Washington is that this is merely a reaction. The -- Putin's aggressive behavior in -- Which could then turn into aggressive behavior toward. NATO member countries such. There's absolutely. -- purple or logical evidence. But nonetheless that's what's -- the other. Is that the hawk faction in May go for years. Has wanted to move military and structured to Russia's borders and now I have -- Another -- -- seizing upon this bogus issue but number one -- nonetheless. Brought about a -- Cold War and inflamed. Relationship. To do what they wanted to do for fifteen years which is to move not just the political influence. Russia's border but it actual infrastructure. Barrymore and John as they say they're that this rapid deployment force is going to be 4000 NATO. Troops. It's silly -- 50000. Ukraine. In the Ukrainian army can't defeat 151000. Rebel fighters in eastern for a what are you -- 40000 NATO are 4000. NATO forces going to be against Russia with its vast army and the Manchuria. That is going to be shed -- those 4000 -- and push for a indeed barracks communications. In motion perhaps. Everything that you associate with the military base. So whether it's 400 or fourth brawl it's a pretext to build the military bases on Russia's. And that of course would be pretty -- marble and those -- first. And even more dangerous schools were because it's more than four weeks Germany which rival Russian borders and all the possible. This provocations. The solution pending actions. Already had a few crimes are are that much greater because it is a Russian or shall I think it's great English. Steps if it's step taken in Wales and -- Two voices from Moscow Juan Mikhail pop off deputy secretary for Russia's Security Council National Security Council. He says that NATO is quote one of the leading military dangers for the Russian Federation. Dangerous the second voice is much more powerful foreign minister Sergey Lavrov speaking in a news conference in Moscow. Said that the Ukrainian government's. Shedding of its nonaligned status to join the military alliance to seek to join NATO. Would scuttle any peace talks. About -- pass any peaceful settlement he went on to say that Ukrainian government's profligate use of the term great patriotic war to talk about. How -- Kiev is now at war with Moscow was misses the quote Steve. -- from Washington some European capitals and more and more often from Brussels and from NATO headquarters where the north treat the North Atlantic. Alliance Secretary General give statements with. And without cost so loud -- is identifying. The bad actors from Moscow's point of view -- go through that list again Washington. European capitals we can presume one of them is Warsaw. And Rasmussen of NATO perhaps breedlove a NATO. Love rough is identifying. His opponents. Does that mean Steve that they've decided to move towards war footing that they've already taken off the gloves. Russian -- yes. Well they're preparing for the worst scenario that with great power. I -- sure Putin's military has given him options. Stop and think about the report that came out today. And it was a dirty business in a private conversation. Are -- the head of the European. Prudent apparently -- I could take Kia went to. It's completely out of context charge because I assumed the head of the European Union who's not a substantial. Is a bit of but says that -- you and baiting and improved is that I'm not invading. Decisive issue are the prudence said. If I was invading Ukraine you would know what I could take you into it was just kind of rhetorical -- but the guards beat -- All quorum of diplomacy and relief that two Italians. And the Russians -- what it -- just something. It's more like -- that both sides are now moving toward war floating. NATO with the movement of structured Russia's borders Russia English and I don't have any reason to. That would help explain this sudden clamp. To get Ukraine into NATO on some basis maybe not for membership. But there is some days designation. Called indispensable NATO out something it would expand to. Ukraine. This article five provisions that have -- members attacked all were attacked and almost calm so that members defects. This is really -- -- somebody. In -- somebody in Washington. Is now pushing hard to get Ukraine quickly affiliated with NATO that would never -- in the immediate agenda it was about what might happen. -- Years from. Robert's sudden urgency this notion that is urgent is Ukraine into NATO -- prospering attention and what would Moscow do. Well I'm not sure. Bought one possibility it would be to do what they candidate but is because if NATO -- in Ukraine. Moscow's option would be to take Ukraine itself that is take Q. So this could be. Subject of discussion is not a plant. And that's why are set you back -- that you you can travel lodge and we've seen them unfold and I would add one other -- No more that you and I can jump out of -- Countries can't judge jumper out of their geography quarter which. And Russia geography history it's no matter who the -- should no matter well. That Russia cannot tolerate quote. -- Ukraine and NATO that's what this has been about change that and now all those party on the table. There was agreement at the end of the Cold War that we would not come to this I believe there was one or more agreements. In Budapest for example. 1994 to protect Ukrainian sovereignty and said that. The NATO forces would not see -- station military units -- Russia's border exactly what we're seeing now. And those promises now today are said to be no longer useful I've seen expedient remarks from several people. Saying that because of Russia's actions in Ukraine we can forgo all that treaty making of that in the 1990s. That is expedient Steve but experienced one man who is going to benefit from this I'm always cynical enough to follow the money. Moscow. Doesn't benefit from this Berlin doesn't. Paris doesn't Paris what is selling a major weapons system to Russia London doesn't get anything from that -- that has lots of Russian. Homeowners in the most expensive parts of downtown London. So who gets money from this can you find somebody. Just a little let down. You're gonna have to get another guest to answer that question I don't know. That means there is that's -- definitely I mean they're afraid that there are vested interest. That profit from war or the Specter of war because they make themselves more weapons. If the cliche that happens to be true. But I don't think that there are powerful Detroit well. This has been warned. Misconceived. Policy on the part of west. From the get go way back in November slash -- didn't win the European Union Washington to back him. Forced Ukraine to make the choice between trade relationship with Ukraine and mean what Russia or use and it -- -- important. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- To adhere to NATO policy. Here's the iron work full -- that was all. In the news. The EU showed up to discussed in the -- part way which Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine's economic situation trade really. If you sign that you mean that now that's exactly what we call war in November of 2000. Repeated. Well and pollutants. -- -- -- Let Ukraine trade with new and and you Washington says oh bell after all of this track. All of these all of these refugees all wish to structure. The EU is saying okay we're now ready to talk about it and they went to advance can I don't know what was. Whether Russia would miss greens action which markets it's it's it's just things -- not the politically. Would it also uses that Europe and Washington's policy. -- -- November lecture -- completely collapsed and it's now become more -- is not about trade and this is about war. Let's let's turn to that then I'll drop my economic. Pursuit and talk about war drums because a hundred years ago we had. Leaders of men lead to let things get out of control and the result was the catastrophe of the twentieth century I'm John -- with professor Stephen F Cohen I'm your university. Russian history as well as Princeton University this is the John Masterson. And Jon Lester and -- the show professor Stephen F Cohen is here were discussing what we know right now. To -- the war drums of NATO meeting in Cardiff Wales within these next hours. Friday and Thursday and Friday of this week and then a NATO. Exercise mid month -- thousand US troops participating at the Ukraine border. With hole. In addition we have Poland's president Thomas now the president of the European. Council that's a decision making post in which a loud voices can be raised and the general secretary of NATO announcing a spear had force to be formed not in the least because of Russian aggression Steve if I set aside. Economic concerns because I can find anybody making money on this European Union -- -- -- wearing about a recession or near to a recession. The only other way to say it is that is bad leadership bad leadership at the wrong time. And men and women looking for advantages over each other. Not realizing that the car is is out of control that right now they're headed for a cliff for a wall whatever that whatever the metaphor should be. Mr. potent is never seemed out of control to me so where Steve who is driving this without. Without looking at the consequence that. Political impossible. I believe that this question was provoked but. But also who reacted. In the way that any Russian leader war would only. I would add up to this point perhaps in a more moderate. I think in this debate in Moscow in the ground. Putin is in the middle between softer and harder line. We go to Merkel recruiters acted again in the context of geography -- history as one. Local. Law has made -- for the duration state. In favor of negotiation. In the war. But she hasn't seemed to which suggests to me that she's well. Maybe with general political -- But certainly in Europe as Poland and the eastern countries where a larger role. And NATO elaborate just twirled president global. -- -- -- United States controls. The knowledge -- states controls. If we look at the -- Being. Adopted our NATO war and the dynamic toward. Ukraine are regarded me as exceedingly on -- -- That are gonna make things work. Do we conclude that Obama. -- Let these calls in these institutions and and Washington. Outwardly it seems thought he doesn't seem to be a leader in the maybe she's a president like Eisenhower you know it was once said that Eisenhower never paid attention he just played golf. But then my colleague at Princeton Fred Greenstein wrote a biography of Eisenhower orange for this presidency and show that -- -- -- and -- over every. That was just his leadership -- not to be up. I don't think that's the case. It's possible. Or if we assume that Obama has kind of abdicate. -- these states should. Invest leadership in this terrible. That means that the power to decide has fallen in the future. In the people in Washington who would not in the war. To people in Europe. Who -- not in the high command of NATO and these people operating should they established spokespeople are. But probably we won't know. Intel restoring and get a look at the art or secret messages and conversations who's driven but it is utter folly -- -- -- much. I thought -- people like the accidental. Drift -- world war war and (%expletive) I didn't know. I guess I think more and more now. Looking at the kind of leader. Except for. Course of that maybe that's the scenario we went. What about the hawks in them and at the Kremlin Steve that's what you are your criminologist are their hawks who. And it will push this in order to -- so I will rely refight the Cold War. I can give you Warren. Thirty well documented case it would be familiar Q there -- no common. Go back to march after the all the elected president of Ukraine. And -- decided he had to promote and in carry out the annexation court. Which has long been part of these historically. It was told to -- This seems clear art -- Warren. Wait don't do it now you'll make things worse. The west don't get very upset -- ever negotiated settlement. Hold Crimea. As a hard to play in negotiation. It's step. Do that auction it can't do that of all of your article which the overflow of Ukrainian -- Is merely another bush stepped in was march toward Russia and they're headed for a rushed -- Looking back. These mostly. All for telling who you think we were right. You'd -- -- that we told you we have a -- and we were right. Therefore when we tell you today. Put an end of this. You content. To just put it into. NATO would never gonna -- What worse worldly. They're moving towards Russia just -- don't wait you're too slow -- Their voices are more persuasive they were questioned again because advancing to board up their arguments about such. Professor Stephen F Cohen of new York university and Princeton University Russian history emeritus. Writing most recently of the nation about patriotic heresy and the new Cold War. All along the watch towers of the Cold War I'm John bachelor.