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NewsRadio 1330 KNSS>Audio & Video on Demand>>Wed 9/3/14 Hr 2 JBS Alan Tonelson, RealityChek. Ho-fung Hung, Johns Hopkins. David Feith, WSJ. Joe Sternberg, WSJ.

Wed 9/3/14 Hr 2 JBS Alan Tonelson, RealityChek. Ho-fung Hung, Johns Hopkins. David Feith, WSJ. Joe Sternberg, WSJ.

Sep 3, 2014|

Alan Tonelson, RealityChek. Ho-fung Hung, Johns Hopkins. David Feith, WSJ. Joe Sternberg, WSJ.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Good evening I'm John bachelor Gordon Chang Forbes dot com is Whitney and Ukraine. President of Russia president Ukraine negotiating in some fashion fog of diplomacy certainly the meeting in Cardiff Wales within these next hours. As an atmosphere of Cold War about it the confrontation between. NATO and the United States and Russia. Baghdad he -- the vice president making extremely aggressive remarks about how far he will go to track down Baghdad in his gang. Of monsters in Mosul that's in the fractured Iraq. And one more picture I'm planning to an article by David Sanger in the New York Times. The third monster according to the headline writers in New York Times the three headed monster that challenges the Obama administration's foreign policy. Is none other than the president of China -- and paying. Its products. Alan tunnels joins us now Allen is a man whom I depend upon you explain. The chamber of commerce Alice Allen is it an independent economic policy analyst he. Blogs that reality check mr. tunnels and a very good evening to you I hold you entirely responsible for suddenly the American Chamber of Commerce in China wakes up to the fact. That China has been targeting foreign companies for some time persecuting them finding excuses using obscure laws. They've done a survey Allen and they discovered in August. That a 164 respondents regard the Chinese regime as aggressive what's happened -- Did somebody change leadership at the chamber did they take the right drugs what welcome up. Well Sean I think it is a true released marquis employed writer would write something like dog bites man. And you're certainly right -- chamber has taken an awfully long time it waking up to the threat posed by the Chinese Government -- -- -- two. Its members operations in China ball. The user the is the chamber. For years years years. Has not been. Harassment free in China China has always been very difficult place to do business but the chambers rationale. For continuing to invest in China continuing to walk short jobs to -- To China continuing to -- or American production to China was of that. If we're just -- patient enough. Wrong and if we let the movie Chinese seats. How successful they could be if they if they followed our own philosophies and and they'll and -- own. Business practices. On the -- essentially these these. Ever well they're Communist ways. And and they they would. They would work even ordered to become just like go to -- terms of well their overall approach to the economy to free markets. And free trade. It looks like the chamber -- at the very least having second thoughts about this. Well this new report was anything brought default for the attacked. All of the Chinese court giving all not only US -- dual core businesses in China. But it does seem that the it is the the -- chambers alert level are has gone from yellow to at least of a very bright orange. -- part of the survey essentially is a complaint about discriminatory treatment by the Chinese authorities of US companies. And what we have seen since July of last year. It is really an application of the bribery laws and the anti monopoly laws. In ways that are very troubling because although I'm not saying that foreign companies in the US companies are blameless. I'm sure they've committed sins that are terrible. Nonetheless we don't see prosecutions of Chinese companies that we know have been involved in much worse behavior then the multi nationals. So we capitalist together and is becoming very clear that the Chinese are using these discriminatory prosecution's. Essentially they give Chinese companies a big benefit competitively. Now the question for you would be since you're in Washington. What should the United States to to try to even up the scales. Because clearly what we're seeing is our companies being put at a competitive disadvantage. Well Gordon that really is the 64 belt no question that it seems to me now quite clear. That Chinese. That China's behavior show is. That -- government. Does not agree with the US government's proposition. That trade and -- and investment. Among countries. Should be and almost always is a win win proposition that a fully mutually beneficial. And that the lightest possible government. Is it is the key to want locking the greatest possible benefits for everyone. The Chinese clearly do not exceed their trade and investment relations with this -- Country as a win win they see it as a win lose and they have been working. -- on for years and years to gain. Economic power in all of its forms. At the expense of the US economy and the US business. It looks like it seemed wrote all of converse is starting very blatantly to wake up. To this threat but I'm hoping. Almost against hope that the US government. We -- who will be will be even more perceptive. And we have to realize his. That if the Chinese or is seeking to gain economic power. At our expense we have to retaliate. Very strong and very Smart ways and the most important step but we can take these distort denying China access to the US market. And the reason that this will work. Is because China's economy remains. Heavily dependent for not only growth and job creation. On selling products to the United States because the United States. For all of the damage that we have -- beep mostly gone to a broad economy still remains the world's greatest -- well. And its greatest deploy of consumption -- tried it desperately needs to access that it's time for the United States to start cutting all that. You and to put some numbers on this last year China's merchandise trade surplus against the United States. Was 318. Point four billion dollars which is the biggest trade surplus that any country has run against any other. And that was a 122. Point 6% of China's overall trade surplus. Which means that they're running deficits with the rest of the world to run a surplus against us. We can find other places to manufacture the Chinese can not find another market for their goods which means that we have extraordinary leverage over the Chinese. If we have the will to user. That's right and so far we we have not had that will what's also very important point there it is that there's a big national security ankle that -- respect. To Jones original observation about president Obama's stated. To East Asia ostensibly to counter the rising Chinese threat. To the region's stability that he sees all of -- years and years of US trade deficits with China have. Have handed over to China I've been on the council well the China and she used in part to build its own. Military capability and equally reckless transfers of US technology. Has given China's they know how to build increasingly advanced weapon. This also so this. US strategy of ignoring Chinese provocations have to come to win and not only for purely economic reasons quote -- national security reasons. Alan let's be commonsensical about this the -- the Chinese the Chinese policies are effective. Friday they have enriched themselves while re arming and we. -- awakening and they are military cult and there is no blocking them right now the Obama administration has no plan that's the point. Of this article in the New York Times right Beijing understands. If this is in the New York Times. This is not a critic that is being unfair. This is a flat out. Rick Green flag to Beijing to redouble its efforts against American companies in order to in order to gain profit that's what they're being told. Right and I think it's also a green flag for the Chinese. Despite the US -- -- protestations. To continue harassing US and other foreign owned firms. In China in full confidence. That the rules will be -- official American would. And no moral hazard like. Gorton. Because of this article on the New York Times we had prepared for this although we've been arguing about it for about four years I think we can say we did our homework here. I do you think this -- surprise invasion I think it will be because this is the New York Times saying this this is not the Wall Street Journal this is not The Washington Times. This is the New York Tom Davis stagger the -- chief Washington correspondent for the New York Times this is a news analysis piece -- jewels to look at it you don't have to look any deposits and the picture. Recruitment. -- Baghdad. And Washington. I'm John -- We'll. I'm John -- -- Gordon Chang of Forbes dot com continues with me and we're very pleased to welcome. Professor ho hum hum. -- professor Johns Hopkins University. Specializing in social movements and political conflict in the greater China region. Professor of our good evening to you. What is occupy centrally and in the news in East Asia in contest with the Beijing government could evenings here. Living. All about and debate -- days. Movement initiated by day. Law school professor in the University of Hong Kong. And apple has had been attacked and also some bothered professionals and democratic Arab citizens corners. Over the last one -- two years stage. Try to build up movement of Civil Disobedience. And saying that because Hong Kong has been waiting. For the relaxation of it is that -- operation that the Chinese Government has promised Hong Kong people. -- for. We turn off almost 72 trying to in Lebanon assessment. But. -- it would have been waiting too long and and China's government. It's going to. Decide what is. -- what are you -- the chief executive. In 2007 in ten and then the presidential movement threatened that if. Do you do that is a bridge is mark going to be recognized his camera and so do mobilize people in Hong Kong to occupy financial district of Hong Kong. As a kind of about getting troops two finished the Chinese Government to compromise and then to. Also Hong Kong's noble opens. Proposal that so that local people capital real estate in. Determining who is the chief executive. Sort of put this in the context. In 2017. The next chief executive of Hong Kong will be elected in the chief executive as the top political officer. And Beijing has determined that in that 2017. Election there may be as there will be universal suffrage. But the nominating process for who can actually run. Will be so restricted to Beijing's loyalists that essentially there will be a fake election. And that heart and occupy a central has said that if there is not going to be a free and fair election. It will engage in massive Civil Disobedience in Hong Kong it is that more -- -- right. Yes and without the debated about it. The rule to -- and Asian community because to try to government. In national people's congress decisions so over the weekend is dictate that the laws and Asian. Come into the -- powerful and that and now where I want to unfortunate expected if need to have more than half. All the nomination committee. Support and and in the -- Because we have to chief executive. Being given that the site action committee. And then we -- that the committees pretty much controlled by. Beijing government. So it means that it is going to be a detection systems that the Beijing government picked -- candidate and then before the candidate can be put to popular. Whole farm what has been the reaction of people in Hong Kong to the very restrictive electoral process that Beijing has mandated. For the 2017. Elections have people accepted it as they rejected it. What do they think about it. People are angry. -- occupy a central movement. Back in July -- hold on referendum movement is not all official referendum but it is organized by the ferry. Respectable to -- surveyed. Organization and -- could visit Hong Kong so. Stayed true on nine system and also voting station on the street to collect albeit in a problem people in the and and there. 750000. People who vote in. In that. Referendum and then. -- majority ought to people vote to support. The proposal that the nomination committee's all right but at the same time this support. Kind of a citizen nomination process so that. If you have a certain number of citizens signing. To support a candidate and the candidate can also won for the should expect it to so the expectation is that. The Beijing. Should be giving Hong Kong real. Choice of candidates -- When the business operates materialize into those seventeen now it seems that these expectations. It's likely to be that the oddity and and so people afraid angry even a moderate Democrats now who. Has been asking fault -- That featuring the nomination committee about puzzle hustle that they only gospel artists. More percentage of vote among the members of the nomination committee. To war and the candidates is that even that them older people vote so problematic proposal is rejected by the China's got some angry. Professor of the American people understand villains we you've been here plenty long enough to understand we wanna get right to -- who's the bad guy. The New York Times right now has a picture up. Accompanying an article by a distinguished senior correspondent at the New York Times David Sanger free headed monster that daddy of Mosul. Vladimir -- of the Kremlin and in the middle issued and -- making the president of China. Of -- In terms of this article in the Obama administration. Is she shouldn't paying a villain for occupy central is he regarded as the adversary. I think. I don't know -- I don't know where he's been combative nature but now it does structural. Chinese. Put -- this system is that. Now he's the leader but he's how is not yet very consolidated as a model and it needs I would did. I'm happy about him and one the Caspian with the in the establishment so in these kind of situation I think he was. He has been corrected by the system -- -- structure. To -- aggressive. On all kinds of issue including cracking down on. Civil society in China dissident boys with the amendment trying to and being aggressive on Hong Kong optimizing too. The point of the Hong Kong people and even in the South China Sea with Japan with that mounds of citizens and -- -- kind of it's kind of torture and find everywhere that he has to do -- -- -- -- -- -- as the president is in Vietnam -- So he's a reluctant villain he's been drafted into the role of the enemy is student -- system to the nature of the system. And other words is and that would explain Gordon that strange remark he said even if it kills me even if I'm destroyed in this -- -- Yes this was for the June 26 Politburo meeting where siege -- doing talking about his signature. Anti corruption campaign which is actually a political purge but when he talked about his anti corruption campaign he said it was being stalemated. Which is an unprecedented. Admission. Well professor we just have 20 seconds the occupy central where they intimidated by the first steps of Beijing. I think in the past two days just -- -- -- -- -- in the leadership and that need to regroup because. Many people has put expectations that debate don't be intimidated by the threat of a presidential might talk about Beijing's spanning from so they need to -- thing about this strategy. Right we call it rearming of Fung Hong says you professor at Johns Hopkins University Gordon Chang of Forbes dot com I'm John bachelor. Yeah. Three headed monster says David Sanger is headline in the New York giants' three headed monster about a member of the Kremlin she didn't ping -- Beijing and the third monster out Baghdad he's in Mosul. Which is western Iraq that David -- of the wall street journal editorial joins us from Hong Kong. Because there is reporting. And it's in the Wall Street Journal and looking at right now on the editorial page. Of ice is recruiting. In Indonesia that's the most Muslim country on the war on on the planet. But also in Australia Australia David good morning to you Australia. The numbers used in the editorial the Wall Street -- a 150. From what communities is this a Muslims from Australia or every 1 good morning to you. Good morning. The the number understood. 150. Is number that's been provided by the Australian government. As an extra -- -- the number citizens currently being whipped right fit in the middle. And did get Peter drawn from. Local communities in Australia which is a combination. Of he's Muslim communities and that of course convert. Who might who might reflect more differently erotic. Two involved. Unfortunately. Radicalized. It was one -- that would get that description. When an Australian -- chief -- Was circulating photos online with his seven year old son. Holding up the the severed head in Syria. From some unfortunate. -- David you know we've been told over and over again dead people in Asia are only interested in making money. -- your piece was talking about a crisis is stronghold. Over Muslim populations in Asia. -- seemed to contradict that notion but how do you see this. -- -- Can -- -- this story perhaps what about strong. And more about the opportunity even for a small number of people to do an enormous amount. But the damage. That John alluded to a moment ago Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim majority. Country. I think -- it is a population. Is is -- -- George thirty million. And the opportunity there should be in -- perhaps given the controller glacier. Indonesia it. Sprawling. Geography. Disallowed for. Small but dedicated in radical organizations to potentially do an enormous amount of damage. As should be in my little immediate terrorist group did. About ten years ago when they had several bombings including true on the -- report. I would of -- -- one of which in 2000. -- 200 -- people from 23. Countries including eat also. Indonesia is part of what you'd have to say is a world of violence that swim from the Philippines all the way to. Australia. Do we have a sense of crisis of radicalization. Throughout that long complex southern the southern Philippines to all the waited. To Jakarta. Or is there right now just the beginnings of intelligence gathering about how far it's gone. Well I think we would have to say that this is just the beginning. That being said I hit it into rival. Well it could be infrastructure. If you will. Those of Jihad and the men and certainly at least a little bit of theme this region is quite good so what we're seeing for example. Is -- Gemma let me get this organization the title organization that has done. Terrible bit about ten years ago has been considerably paralyzed. By the fact that counter terror operation. From the Indonesians and the Australians in the US. Over the past decade. But what you have is prepared imprisoned spiritual leader example. From prison so what are -- -- in new player. He's tapping into and it has the potential to more into. And infrastructure that already there and has proven. -- able to do some some terrible damage. Earlier this week David Cameron the British prime minister propose a number of methods of getting at. British citizens who are fighting with spices or inside a crisis. And one of the malicious to take away their passports strip them of their nationality all sorts of things. Our leaders in Asia talking about similar measures against crisis -- is still much too early for them to actually give specific proposals. Specifics that they've given don't go quite as far as -- Somebody Cameron proposal might be. So even in Indonesia and Malaysia. Football from countries. Leaders have condemned our group. Four. Humiliating problem committing crimes in the name of Islam. Either monitoring -- they have. Their outlook on -- radicalization. And in the Malaysian say they are monitoring Malaysians travelling overseas. Because a lot of these various service major transit point. Both the citizens here and for others traveling through. Australia has done similarly -- a couple of surveillance in airports. They also are perhaps -- closer to the the British example they introduce. And here -- intelligent reform legislation. That would strengthen the ability of intelligence agencies to monitor social media and it would mandate the Telecom providers begin leaving. Two years worth of Australian phone and Internet metadata that some of the intelligence analysis that. The US NSA has done could also be done in what circumstances in Austria. David there's indication from the Obama administration that the rise and success devices caught Washington on prepared that's certainly implicit in mr. sang his article. About the Obama administration not having a response to the three headed monster overwhelmed in fact by the multiplicity of the threat. Is there indication in Australia also are concentrated on Australia because -- got intelligence gathering I'm familiar with that ice is caught. Canberra by surprise. Well one thing that. Particularly interest thing and and frustrated about the content of a quick well. In the past nine months. The Australians and the Indonesians have been feuding. Over revelations. Problem that would -- Sir I would note last November. We're we're told that in 2009. Australian governments have tried to cap the loans. Senior Indonesian leadership and they've done this. You're just days after. Several hotels in Jakarta have been involved but it was a particularly. Tense and difficult time. This revelation at all I mean enormous feud there were protests from extremists in the history of Jakarta and the government in Indonesia. Spend it all sort of diplomatic cooperation. With Australia. Including some military. Joint exercises and intelligence share that you would it began last November was not at all until last week so the very -- What are the right thing in orchard grotesque way on the world stage. Australian and the Indonesians were not in a situation that actually cooperate. On intelligence. That sort of thing. We don't know the damage that might have been caused but it doesn't speak well preparedness. A major government. Very diplomatically put David what are you hearing that there are giants to re arranging their deck chairs now is this a rush. It's similar to what I here in Washington -- won't be surprised that I hadn't come to me to check. It's difficult to know. The that would certainly. From the rhetoric. I certainly Australia and also Indonesia. That the government are paying attention. Whether they're able to implement effective. Surveillance and intelligence sharing bilaterally in multi laterally. Of course the question. In Indonesia at least there's like -- transaction going -- from one president to a new president who will be sworn in. In October. It's. Again and would perhaps not the best moment for -- to be so clearly seem. And that will know in -- in the month. And years to come. Are there have been some acceptance yeah wrapping up will be the title linked to. Paris operating in Indonesia since nine elevenths so it can be done. But maybe the dangers are certainly bear and we went for -- -- loyalists. In Indonesia and Malaysia and elsewhere and the rest of those returning from the battlefield -- the little is very -- That's like a wildfire -- all parts of the globe David final question the very short are you surprised that the New York Times would group. She -- -- with Vladimir Putin and now Baghdad it. It was side it was perhaps only a matter of time even in your -- intention. David five wall street journal editorial and Gordon's smiling and -- David. In Hong Kong Gordon Chang of Forbes dot com I am -- this is the John that solution. I'm John that's important Chang continues it may occupy essential is our concern and we go to Hong Kong just Sternberg and Wall Street Journal. -- good morning to you. Any tie. One of the founders by court and yet and this as speaking for occupy central and the harsh confrontation with the authorities these last days. His quote and I'm -- I'm following from the international business times. We have no intention to damage the economy. Of Hong Kong this is -- time main organizer of the movement he told this to Bloomberg. I understand that he is being diplomatic but does this mean that he -- tide. Has called off occupy -- They're not going to challenge the authorities with what. I thought was going to be a street demonstration of solidarity against the false promises of Beijing good morning job. I -- -- very. Strange development territory on here's some of these comments from burning tires -- services leader occupied central movement. And now seems to be demonstrating. Two weeks of cold feet. I mean you're gonna -- the whole point if occupied central to the name comes from the idea of doing your protracted. Arctic conditioners are citizens. In the central business district of Hong Kong explicitly with the intent of trying to gum up the economy to its culture and vision to deliver on the democratic promises. The Beijing itself has made. And now all of a sudden in the past we care vision has come out with its planned for -- constitutional reform in Hong Kong. Very hard line Purcell. It would seem to be here on the verge of uniting the water with -- of democracy camp in -- wrong. And a professor tribe seems to be getting cold feet. I mean I think the really entrusting. The question to be asking. It's how much influence cylinder happening within the movement as a result of in other people -- with the leadership of marketplace central. There's sort of been urging people to reject this so what they call -- democracy. A division has offered sort wouldn't assume that prefer surprises last word here but it is a strange statement for him to be making. Joseph the only way that I can understand this is that somebody is gotten to be any time they either got photographs or they have something on him. And and that their blackmailing them. But really when you start to think about this if the occupy central movements. Assertions fragment. You're probably going to see people who are much more hardcore. Than he is because he's always fined for nonviolent Civil Disobedience yes but nonviolence. King is -- to see fringe elements taking some very troublesome views. And and actually going out and doing things that could. Really. Changed the calculus of Hong Kong in May be enough for the better. Well. I mean I think that that's over as a concern whenever you're her sister green. In tractor that would be from -- the powers would be of no means for. People to peacefully express. They're they're just content through the ballot box. I mean during that you're going to know what might be motivating beneath ties stranger -- on the sister and I don't think that it has to be anything -- colorful also a black hole slaughter any. And it's and discipline these. Well I mean -- I think it is and other possible explanation here virtually I think is is quite likely is that any ties in a lot of people thought that causes. -- of Civil Disobedience. Would encourage vision to make concessions when it released its or you know the paper and just constitutional reform. That our calculation clearly was wrong I think you -- maybe it was a bit naive to believe that they could change visions -- like. And now faced with the prospect that they didn't succeed him in that goal. You know they're getting cold heated up moving forward with superb cast. I think that you can put your finger and -- real problem we're going to have here. Which is that the degree of popular just contender for this issue right now is. Really significant here. And I think that if you don't have moderate leaders like -- try it out there that are helping to channel. You know you do have to wonder what direction. These purchase might end -- -- I still think that it's going to end up being. Peaceful protest supporting former and other. You know it is going to be interesting to see what develops. He always seemed to me that they given the breath of discontent. In Hong Kong and it really does -- almost the political spectrum not quite. But it would seem to me that Hong Kong then becomes ungovernable. In the sense that -- going to have an election in 2017. And it's not gonna really have legitimacy. You know Beijing is gonna pick a stooge who is not going to represent the people of Hong Kong. And you're going to have what we've had with the three chief executives that we've seen so far. Which is basically uninspiring leadership and eventually a loss of support that it makes it almost very very very very hard for that person to govern effectively. So clearly what I think you're going to see. Is Hong Kong be coming basically ungovernable how to how do you see it. Well what do you mean becoming I would barricaded in a lot of an important -- -- chrome already is uncovered you're right you're right yeah. I mean basic government decisions contributed that we -- public protests here outside of the government office buildings can you view licenses. You know -- licensing in new broadcast station when does that ever -- popular purchased in any other place. -- -- here are any time the government does anything it becomes an opportunity for people to vent their basic. Discontent with the fact that no -- elected these guys. And I think that the problems -- -- going to be. Become worse I think that vision might be of little naive if they think that simply by declaring that constitutional reforms now settled issue. People will give them I think that in here and we're going to continue seeing this under credibility problem and one former another. In sharp contrast let's go to the elected officials in Tokyo prime minister all day. You wanted to comment on cabinet positions and the economy how so. Well I think. You know this is and another story we've been talking about you know economics can Japan be reformed and what's interesting isn't this week -- come forward with a cabinet reshuffle. Overseas. Promoting a couple ministries particularly our secure solutions so lucky is going to be taking your present. Ministry intricate pensions and welfare. It. You know it is there is that it disrupted in Japan democracy is actually going to produce economic reform and good. Economic results include certainly something people of Hong Kong could reflect a little. -- -- been so many cabinet reshuffle is let's say over the last half decade. And generally they have not helped the government in power. You regained popularity. Do you think this one actually might be effective. Or do you think this would just follow the old pattern of yes they're changing gun cabinet ministers but it isn't gonna really do any good. Well I think what's different this time around -- that it's been an unusually long time since the last time as a company. And -- in people tend not to realize that. They kept to his original cabinet when he when he properly twelve and thirteen in place for very long -- -- And Syracuse started to break this cycle that you're describing written ministries and ministers -- changer for a couple months. You know I think that it did you know very teaching the bureaucracy that the people he's appointing now. Are probably going to -- some staying power. You know I think that that is sexually useful. Development here unions -- ironically enough this cabinet reshuffle just -- because it's been so long since the last ones. Final comment for the evening show on our review of the surprising to me picture in the New York Times David sang this article about the three headed monsters surprising the Obama administration's foreign policy. Vladimir Putin held -- daddy and -- -- and paying. Do you think in Tokyo there smiling when they look at this this morning that she didn't paying their adversary has been grouped in with the monsters devices. I think there's a lot of people and issues including in -- here understood it to China has -- a territorial ambitions are a major threat and a lot of people in the future pushed the Washington take that seriously. I think that people -- your oracle of any effort to try to call attention to visit the problems in this part of the world. You know Richard isn't too many -- as pressing them and their own way -- problems elsewhere. Since when did you become a diplomat just goes Sternberg of the Wall Street Journal well said Joseph Gordon Chang of Forbes dot com three monsters courtesy of the New York Times David Sanger on -- back.

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